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JG Plant acquired; ex-Toro Co. President dies; GreenMech appoint; AL-KO warranty; flood help
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ALSO THE RETURN OF

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MANUFACTURING MELTDOWN?
What happens when China has to reign back?
by Chris Biddle


 
Chris Biddle
THERE are sure to be a quite a few bums on seats at the AEA April Conference in London at which the BBC’s Robert Peston is keynote speaker. His views on domestic economic policy will be of great interest, but I imagine that there will be a number of UK manufacturers eager to hear him follow up his absorbing documentary on BBC2 last Tuesday called How China Fooled the World. It was a bold title with a big clue on how he viewed the outcome of China's breakneck speed expansion.

With so many of our manufactured goods now being produced in China, with production resources moved halfway across the world in recent years, what happens if and when China moves from boom to bust?  And according to Peston, that is not a question of whether, but when.

When the financial crash in the West caused melt-down in 2007, China felt the draught, big time. Overseas consumerism was halted, factories faced closure, and country folk who had been lured into the cities and urban areas on the promise of guaranteed work, started to return to land.

So the authorities in China decided to borrow, to invest and keep building at an extraordinary rate.

Over the past five years, it has built 30 new airports, 26,000 miles of motorway, metro systems in 25 cities and a new skyscraper every five days.

The city of Wuhan is probably unknown to many, but with a current population of 10 million, a five-year redevelopment budget of £200bn and a second international airport shortly to open, the mayor is seeking to establish Wuhan as a mega-city.

To put China’s debt in context, the US commercial banking system took over 100 years to reach its present worth of $25 trillion. China has replicated that level in just 5 years.

In recent years, the Chinese economy has been growing by 8%-9% a year, funded by debt-fuelled investment.

Many economists believe that the only hope China has of avoiding melt-down is for growth to be slowed to around 4%. But that brings huge social and political implications.

In the meantime, some of those ‘bums on seats’ in April, might start thinking about regeneration planes for Reform Road, Sunnyhill Avenue, Banner Lane and all stations west.

If Peston’s predications are not fulfilled, he then surely has another programme lined up “How China Foiled the World”.

Watch the programme




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