THE present Government are naturally talking up the economic recovery, particularly after todays GDP figures which shows us back to the point where it began to go pear-shaped in 2008.  They would, wouldn’t they?

The opposition are casting doubts. They would, wouldn’t they?  There is an election on the horizon. Even Ken Clarke, with a bit more time on his hands now, is wondering whether the recovery is as firmly underpinned as it should be.

The Office of National Statistics had previously reported that GDP fell by 7.2% between its peak in 2008 and its trough in the second quarter of 2009. It now says it is 're-visting' those figures and the whole process of how it calculates GDP suggesting that the 7.2% figure was probably over-stated. In which case, we would have completed UK's rehabilitation before today

Closer to home, what is selling, what is not selling? We can only really know from experience at the ‘coal-face’. One dealer’s ‘best-seller’ this season may hardly register on the sales ‘Richter scale’ of a neighbouring dealer.

Which probably once again confirms the truism – dealers sell what they want to sell.

We have no sophisticated monitoring system to track the market (apart from registration of agricultural tractors). We know that Tesco sell, or say they sell, 1.5 billion bananas a year, but does that give us a true picture of the banana market in the UK?

We can track trends. According to the CBI, for the three months May to July 2014, 46% of retailers reported sales up, whilst 25% said they fell (be useful to know if that was a regional difference).

Not surprisingly June was flat, for which you can thank the England team’s early exit from the World Cup.  Just think of those unsold flags and depressed beer sales.

The AEA issue manufacturing and import statistics, but those are dependent on accurate and comprehensive reporting from its membership – and do not reflect end sales.

For your interest, their most recent report suggests growth in diesel garden tractors and diesel out-front rotaries, strong activity in the blower vac market and chainsaws performing well.

Of course there are trends which ripple consistently through the market. But ultimately, what drives the market is the weather and available spend by customers.

With the Met Office suggesting that the present hot weather could last until the middle of August, there will be a slowing down (welcome?) in the hectic pace experienced by most dealers this season as the grass turns brown and holidays take precedence.

All of which could also well be a recipe for a strong back-end to the season.