Firstly, all of us at Service Dealer would like to pass on our best wishes to Anthony Deacon at the team at MKM Agri, who you may have already read suffered a terrible fire at their premises this past week.

Anthony has been an integral part of our dealer panel team during the course of the pandemic, extensively contributing to our Digital Dealer Toolkit and regularly updating us how his dealership has been coping though these unprecedented times. Having to now deal with this crisis on top of everything else that the past year has thrown at dealers, is just devastating.

We wish Anthony and the team the greatest of luck with their recovery. We look forward to when we can report on them fully reopening, stronger than ever.

AEA Conference

With non-essential shops and outside hospitality opening up this week, it has felt to me like some genuine progress is finally being made towards reaching the other side of this thing. However, we clearly are not quite there yet, with another online event taking place this week, highlighting the fact that we still are unable to gather as we once did.

On Tuesday it was the AEA's annual conference, an event that in a normal year, takes place at the home of the Institute of Civil Engineers in Westminster. From memory, it was one of the first industry events to be cancelled due to lockdown one last year. I'm not sure many envisaged it being a year on and still not being able to get together in a room to share ideas and talk about industry issues? Hopefully, as director general & CEO of the AEA Ruth Bailey said in her opening address, by the time next April comes around, members and guests can be back together again, gathered in London.

Ruth Bailey, director general & CEO of the AEA

But we're not there quite yet. Hence this year's conference took place virtually, like so many other things this past year, over Zoom. Obviously this meant no meal, no after-lunch speaker and crucially for some of us, no 'wind down session' in the Westminster Arms post-event! This year, it was purely the speakers to enjoy.

First up was Anand Menon, Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London. You may have seen him talk on shows like Newsnight or Question Time and indeed, he had appeared at the AEA's last conference two years ago. Anand is a gifted presenter, who can make quite complex subjects understandable for even a layman like me. 

Anand Menon

He spoke about how the effects of Brexit are far from over yet. He said whilst Brexit is technically done, what now has to happen is to find ways to make what's been agreed upon, actually work in the real world. Somewhat dauntingly, he said that whilst Covid's economic impact on the country will be relatively short-term, Brexit will be a much longer-term concern. He described Brexit not as a cliff-edge as some tried to present it as, but rather as a slow-puncture.

Whilst Anand was discussing big picture socio-economics, the next speaker was more directly industry specific. The AEA's own agricultural economist, Stephen Howarth, gave a presentation entitled Prospects For Emerging from Covid and Brexit.

Stephen Howarth

He began by saying how 2020 was a year like no other and how no one really knows where we go from here. There is so much uncertainly around, it's a case of anyone's guess. Whilst there appears to be lots of money out there with many having saved during the lockdowns, there are concerns for future job losses so perhaps the big spending boom that some are predicting, might not quite come to pass. Equally there's evidence of pent up demand - so who knows?

In terms of the machinery market specifically, Stephen said the sector did take a hit last spring, but not as bad as many others did. He singled out both tractors and mowers as recovering well and bouncing back strongly. Commercial machinery though, did see a significant fall, for all the reasons we've discussed this past year. 

Looking ahead for the commercial sector for this year, Stephen believed that local authority budgets would still be stretched, but there were signs that the domestic sector should maintain its strong postion from 2020. New tractor registrations going forward are harder to gauge he said, but with the trend for increased power levels continuing, registration levels tend to fall.

There will of course be many factors which will influence the prospects of the machinery sectors over the coming years, led unsurprisingly, by the weather. Stephen talked through some more factors as you can see in the slide below.

Handing over the reins (virtually)

Usually at the AEA conference the incoming president gives an inaugural speech during the luncheon, but in keeping with the irregular nature of this year's one, something slightly different was offered. A Q&A session took place with Ruth Bailey overseeing a discussion between Shaun Groom of Merlo, who is taking over the position for the year, and the outgoing president, Les Malin of Etesia.

Ruth Bailey with Shaun Groom (top) and Les Malin

It will have been an odd period for Les to have been president, having taken the role over and relinquished the chain, both during periods when the conference wasn't able to meet in person. Les himself described this past year as by far the most unusual in all his in business. Himself and Shaun discussed how their working lives had fared and changed during these months. Shaun said how he felt that the restrictions that we've all be working under had very much accelerated the development of technology in the sales process - enabling Zoom and the like to become a mainstream part of the process.

Les continued this theme saying that dealers need to be forward-looking in order to thrive. He said an online presence for specialists is essential, but so is that real-world rapport with professional customers, advocating a hybrid approach. He also believed that dealers may need to consider stocking more heavily where possible in the future.

Both agreed that developing technology would drive the marketplace with increasing electrification of tools and precision options being in great demand from users in all sectors. 

In terms of shows this year Shaun and Les both felt they had their place, but were perhaps a little doubtful as to what would be able to occur in 2021? Shaun felt if an exhibition were to go ahead, it needs to be in its full, true form. He felt it would do an event no justice to take place in a way that would diminish the experience for both visitors and exhibitors. 

Food for thought

As is often case at AEA conferences, the day also included a couple of speakers slightly more tangential to the industry.

David Worsley, Professor of Engineering at Swansea University, gave a presentation detailing his work in advanced materials, solar energy, and research into the development of innovative technologies and materials to feed into the global supply chain. Essentially David has a vision to change the world, with a focus on de-carbonisation and renewable energy for buildings and transport.

David Worsley's presentation

His work into making industrial buildings 'energy positive' by utilising the huge roof spaces for solar panel usage, could have given pause for thought to the AEA members and guests listening.

Finally Leo Johnson, head of disruption at PwC’s and presenter on Radio 4’s FutureProofing series, gave a talk exploring the big ideas and innovations reshaping business and society.

Leo Johnson

His philosophy was that new technology wasn't replacing the ecosytem with the virtual - rather we should all be looking to use developing systems to help make the ecosystem thrive. He said that doing so has the potential to open up huge new market and we're at a point of complete transition.

Congratulations must go to the AEA for staging a topical and engaging event this week, with some really valuable content. Also on a technical level, it all worked very well with hardly any awkward pauses!

As I'm sure the organisers and attendees also do, I sincerely hope that for the conference next April, everyone can be back together at One Great George Street in London - and importantly not forgetting, at the Westminster Arms!