First, let me hang a few figures out there for you.
In 2016, there were 34.4 million cars on UK roads. Car registrations were 2.69 million, of which 47.7% were diesel and 49% (the rest were hybrid or electric). UK built 1.72 million cars in 2016 and 2.54 million car engines (OK that's dwarfed by China who currently build 24 million cars annually). 8 out of 10 cars built in the UK are exported worth £40 billion - or 13% of UK's total exports. 814,000 people are employed across the UK automotive sector (Source: SMMT Indusry facts 2017).
Yet the Government is proposing to largely dismantle that whole infrastructure in 23 years time.
Why and who is to blame? Gordon Brown, couldn’t have been clearer could he? Then Chancellor, he told Parliament in 2001 that “diesel cars should attract less vehicle tax than their petrol equivalents because of better CO2 performance” and reduced vehicle tax for all cars with low CO2 emissions thus providing buyers an incentive to switch to diesel.
No mention of nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions, one component being nitrous oxide (N2O) considered 298 times more harmful than CO2. The case against diesel, particularly with older vehicles operating in urban areas, has been building for years. So taking the bull by the horns, the Government has announced banning the sale of both petrol and diesel cars and vans from 2040. Electric power is the way forward they say.
23 years ahead (2040) to those in their 20s, 30s or 40s must seem an age away. Just as to those of us at the other end of the age scale 23 years back to 1994 still seems like recent history.
Remember? 1994 was the year that Lidl opened its first 10 stores in Britain, the film Four Weddings and Funeral was released, the Channel Tunnel opened, cricket commentator Brian Johnston died, the National Lottery was launched, Sony introduced its first PlayStation and the Daily Telegraph became the first newspaper to go online. As I was saying - seems like yesterday.
So is 2040 a realistic date? Personally I would have preferred to see a phased, but purposeful, move to the ultimate ambition, rather than a firm date. The R&D challenges are immense. The infrastructure changes to provide thousands upon thousands of charging points, the availability of sufficient electricity capacity, the disruption to the replacement cycle of vehicles, the impact on vehicle values – and issues of getting the pricing the right for electric vehicles.
The motor industry has been making a rod for its own back in recent years (although it has driven sales growth) with the extraordinary growth in PCPs (personal contract purchases) which now accounts for 85% of all sales. The Bank of England estimate a current exposure ‘of over £20 billion’ for UK’s major banks. If a downturn comes, people walk away from their contracts – those residual values calculated to provide an attractive monthly commitment could prove fanciful and could impact on the wider economy.
Closer to home. Cordless mowers have been slow to follow the rapid popularity of cordless power tools. Price is still the issue. It would need the kind of seismic event such as when B&Q marketed the first sub-£100 petrol mowers in the 1990s for the public's value perception to be changed.
As for the bigger kit. We’ve hardly scratched the surface. Battery powered tractors are in their infancy (Deere have just launched a concept version). However . . . . current battery capacity limit it to about 4 hours work, with a three-hour recharge – and a current estimated cost of around £200,000 for the batteries alone! So there's much work to do.
I know that tractors, mowers are not included in the Governments present plans, but very quickly public opinion will turn against petrol and diesel powered products. Just as 'vapers', the cigarette substitute, are largely banned from many public spaces. It's perception again.
Believe me, Brexit will possibly prove to be a walk in the park compared with the mammoth transition from the internal combustion engine to . . . something else.
Editor Steve Gibbs is away having a well-deserved break
