This week Service Dealer held the last of our conference calls for a little while, one with a panel of dealers and one with manufacturers, business service suppliers and trade associations. Everyone is becoming extremely busy, so far be it from us to get in the way of business being done!

You can read Service Dealer owner Duncan Murray-Clarke, extending his thanks to all who have taken part here - and I'd just like to add my appreciation to that also. It has been invaluable during this lockdown period, when we've not been able to get out and about to speak to people, to get a sense of how dealers and the wider industry has been coping. 

A surge in business

The message which I took away from our chats this week is that the industry is focussing on recovery. It would appear that pretty much 100% of dealerships are now open again - with safety measures in place of course but perhaps not all staff recalled just yet.

The common thread is that everyone is incredibly busy! We are hearing about a real surge in customer demand, especially in the domestic sector. The ag guys of course never really stopped and with the recent rain, they are finding themselves in the thick of the demands which harvest brings.

Even dealers in the commercial machinery sector, who arguably were hit hardest during the peak of lockdown, are seeing activity. The golf sector is being described as buoyant and even local authority tenders are beginning to wake up again.

So we're in the midst of a real surge. Dealers and manufacturers alike were telling us that year on year, they have experienced better May and Junes. Compare that for a moment against the feelings we all had that night back in March when Boris told us all to stay at home. One dealer confessed to us this week they were in tears that night, worrying about what lay ahead - and they will not have been alone. It's quite remarkable really.

Theories as to why there has been this increase in sales during these quite extraordinary circumstances were discussed. Firstly, it was the timing of the pandemic which had contributed. With the spring and good weather, people at home had the time and the inclination to look after their outside spaces.

Crucially of course, this was combined with the government's furlough scheme. With some money still coming in and very few outlets in which to spend it, the outdoor power equipment sector benefited somewhat.

This extra demand didn't just fall into the laps of dealers though. As we have been reporting, proactive dealers who have adapted quickly, often utilising the digital tools available to them, have found success. Many have had to ramp up their digital reliance in a quite short space of time - finding themselves on a steep learning curve. But with clever, targeted social media marketing, they've seen immediate results. One dealer this week told us how they'd just taken on a new part-time employee to handle their digital output. A reflection of how well digital has been working for them.

A sting in the tail?

However (and there's always a however!), all this positivity is tinged with a healthy dose of caution. It seems many dealers are aware there could be a sting in the tail following all this.

Firstly, there's an emerging immediate concern regarding supply of machinery. This surge has put a real strain on dealers physically being able to get hold of certain items from certain suppliers. One dealer we spoke to went as far as to describe the gaps in their showroom currently as "embarrassing".

Customers will understand to a point that there will be delays in supplies. The fact that factories around the world were closed down for an extended period was always going to have a knock-on effect. Some customers can even be up-sold if the cheaper product they were interested in is unavailable. But there comes a point when the higher ticket items are also out of stock - and patience is lost. It seems that many clients are now at that point where they expect customer service levels to be back to normal.

We fed back these dealer concerns to the manufacturers, who were sympathetic and were no doubt doing their best to resolve any issues. It seems if an honest dialogue can remain open, with suppliers being up front with their dealers, that at least is appreciated. 

The other worry looming is that this surge could well be followed by a spending drought once the terrible level of expected redundancies kick in. As furlough subsides and companies across society either make cuts or sadly fail, that money which has been spent on outdoor power equipment could well disappear.

Dealers are all too aware that this burst of activity could be, as one put it, a ticking time bomb. 

What about shows?

Looking ahead, discussion again turned to how might manufacturers introduce new products to the network in the foreseeable future - with a specific emphasis on the role of shows.

Manufacturers in particular voiced concerns about the number of trade shows now scheduled for the first quarter of 2021. A principal worry shared by many is will punters actually want to attend? Which is, of course, an almost impossible question to answer!

As well as difficulties that distancing measures will of course dictate on the showfloors of the exhibition halls, it's all the activities surrounding the show experience which also have to be taken into account. Travelling in cars together, staying in local hotels and socialising in bars and restaurants. Will visitors be prepared to put up with the difficulties inevitably associated with all these matters? Or will they think, 'do you know what, for the aggravation involved, I can skip going to the show this year'?

It is of course a desperately difficult situation for all involved - not least for the various show organisers, for whom there is sympathy. There are alternatives of course. Glee who declared yesterday that September's edition won't be going ahead at the NEC, have announced plans for an online alternative. Cereals recently seemed pleased with how their virtual show went down.

But those events planning a live gathering in the spring, for those organisations their annual exhibitions are vital for their ongoing work. The question is though, how vital will they prove for exhibitors and visitors early next year?

And that problem of not knowing what's around the corner was summed up for me on our call by one manufacturer. "At the moment, trying to predict what business will be like next week is the 10 million dollar question," they said.

"Trying to predict what it'll be like in six months . . well, that's the 10 BILLION dollar question."