AEA CONFERENCE 2018
High attendance at London HQ of Institution of Civil Engineers
by Word and pictures by Chris Biddle
 
Dr Simon Moores

More than 180 members and guests, the best attendance for some years, enjoyed a thought-provoking AEA Conference last Tuesday (10 April) at the headquarters of the Institution of Civil Engineers in the heart of Westminster.

Inevitably, much of the conference was devoted to the likely impact of the ongoing Brexit negotiations, particularly on farming and the management of the countryside.

Leading economist, Derrick Wilkinson, a former Chief Economist at the National Farmers Union and the CLA (Country Land and Business Association) opened up by saying that since the referendum “Brexit has been good for farmers with increases in CAP payments”  However, he warned that the ‘fork in the road’ would be happening from 2020 when the transition period commences and there was clear evidence that ‘over the following 5-7 years, there would likely to be a significant drop in farm incomes”.

He added that the UK also faced “more competition from international food suppliers, so the farming industry has to ensure that it was ‘match-fit’ to survive and prosper during the transitional period”.

Liquidity and gearing across the farming sector was generally OK, he said, but the return on capital of around 2% (compared with 12-15% in manufacturing) meant that many farmers could be exposed during the transition period.

Despite that, he considered that whilst the landscape for UK farming was bound to change after the transition period, the overall prospects were good. “Yes there are likely to be fewer farm businesses and land management will change, but improved efficiency coupled with technological change and product innovation will mean a bright future for the UK’s most efficient farmers”

 Anthea MacIntyre, is MEP for the West Midlands and authored a report in 2016 on ‘Technological Solutions for Sustainable Agriculture in the EU’. She said that technological change will drive the farming sector in the future, but that it had to be accessible to all farmers. “We are fully behind the EU’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme, and the UK gets more out of it than it puts in” she said “only last week, the UK was awarded the most research grants for the next year, far more than countries such as Germany and France”

The final speaker was Dr Simon Moores who is described as a leading futurist. He took delegates behind the scenes of information providers such as Google and Facebook and said that the window of change is closing rapidly. “Forget long term planning, nobody has a clue what ill happen in 5 years time” The mind set of new consumers is now not about ownership, but of renting or experiencing products and services.

He foresaw days ahead when Amazon would track your purchases and deliver items to your door automatically – which you would then return on the spot if not required. Or the development of ‘blockchain’ which meant that if a customer missed a regular payment on a car, the finance company could remotely turn off the starting mechanism so that the vehicle could not be used!

The speaker at the lunch, following the conference was Alfie Moore, a serving police officer and comedian who has performed at the Edinburgh Fringe and comedy clubs – and is about to tour a new show called Getting Away with Murder.

CONFERENCE QUOTES

Derrick Wilkinson

“The highest performers (farmers) will prosper after Brexit whatever the outcome”

Anthea McIntyre MEP

“Glyphosate has proved perfectly safe and is important to progressive farming techniques. Science needs to decide these matters, not politics”

Dr Simon Moores

“Alexa talks to me more than my wife”

“Data is the new oil”

 

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Chris Cooper opens conference
Chris Cooper opens conference
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